It is not a question of "if",but a question of "when".

EUR is rallying on promise Sarkozy will do "everything" to save Greece and this we find interesting ,as France itself has bigger issues at home to solve instead of helping Greece (read Credit agricole debt ratings cut by moody's along with Societe Generale's).EUR’s bounce has to be seen as temporary in nature;a dead-cat bounce and nothing more.Can we make the case for the EUR to "bounce" all the way back to 1.38 in the course of the next day or so ?of course we can and likely we shall,but we shall make even the stronger case that that what modest strength the EUR is able to show is to be sold.Strength in the EUR henceforth is to be sold;weakness is not to be bought.
This thus bring us to the question whether Greece will default and we see no reasons to mince words here that it will;it may be this month.....if not this month ,then next and if not next,then the next thereafter.The only answer we can give regarding the “When” is that it will be done with the banks have had sufficient time to insulate themselves as best they might from the damage that shall be caused.  They are doing what they can to make the adjustments necessary, but no matter what, the eventual crack-up is coming and the damage that shall be done shall be enormous and global.