The slowdown in the world's largest economies is set to continue, with economic activity set to fall below its long-term trend in most, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's composite leading indicators.
- The Paris-based think tank Monday said its leading indicator of economic activity in its 34 members fell to 100.4 in September from 100.9 in August.
- The rate at which new businesses have been launched has fallen in 2011, having risen in 2010.
- The leading indicators for Japan, Russia and the U.S. fell from August, but remained above the 100.0 level that indicates that economic activity is at its long-term trend. For those three economies, the OECD said its leading indicators "point to slowdowns in growth towards long-term trends."
- However, the leading indicators for Canada, France, Italy, the U.K., Brazil, China, India and the euro zone all fell further below the 100.00 level, with the leading indicator for Germany falling to 99.1 from 100.4,pointing to economic activity falling below long-term trend.
- With monetary and fiscal policy constrained, much of the responsibility for reviving growth will rest with the private sector. But the OECD said that with a few exceptions, start-up rates for new businesses fell in the first two quarters of this year.
"At the height of the global economic crisis, start-up rates fell precipitously in all OECD countries where data is available," the think tank said. "In subsequent quarters, start-up rates began picking up, toward pre-crisis levels, but in recent quarters this momentum appears to have stalled."
Australia has been the main exception to that trend, although start-up rates have also picked up in Norway and Spain.
But while fewer new businesses are being launched, OECD figures indicate that bankruptcies are taking a decreasing toll on existing businesses. In most countries for which figures were available, bankruptcy rates were falling gently or were steady, having peaked at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009.
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