Friday, December 16, 2011

Saxo lists its 'outrageous' forecasts for 2012 .



Every year, Saxo Bank takes a look into its crystal ball, a slightly clouded one perhaps, and comes up with a list of 10 outrageous predictions for the following year.
This one is no exception. And some of its outrageous predictions have indeed come true in the past.
Although the Danish online investment bank does admit these events are unlikely to take place, it feels they are still far more likely to happen than the market appreciates.
"Our Outrageous Predictions have been prepared in the spirit of encouraging investors to think outside the box and prepare for world-altering events," said Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank. "Should some of the predictions come to pass, it would make 2012 a year of tremendous change."

1. Stock of Apple Inc (APPL) halves in value from the 2011 high as it struggles to maintain 55% market share given multiple competitors.

2. The bank suggests the EU Treaty changes are insufficient to prevent the debt crisis returning with a vengeance by mid-year--hardly unpredictable--but this prompts EU politicians to call an extended bank holiday, closing all exchanges and banks for a week, to cope with the hefty losses on the stock markets.


3. The next U.S. presidential election is due at the end of 2012, and Saxo suggests there is a (small) chance a yet unannounced candidate would win this vote given the widespread disillusionment with the U.S. political system. Remember Ross Perot anyone?

4.Saxo offers the possibility that Chinese policymakers become worried about slowing domestic growth, and thus allow the yuan to decline against the dollar, sending the pair up to 7.0, for a 10% increase.

5.Recession in Australia,because of the above reason. 

6. The Swiss National Bank wins its fight to weaken its currency. It manages to engineer a move in EUR/CHF as high as 1.50 during the year, way above the 1.20 floor it imposed in September.

7. Switzerland loses its safe-haven status, and is replaced by Sweden and Norway, prompting the yields on the two countries' 10-year government bonds to fall more than 100 basis points below bunds.

8. Saxo looks at the pressure caused by new capital requirements and regulatory pressure, with banks having to deleverage rapidly. A fire-sale of assets results in more than 50 banks in governments' hands and several well-known brands out of business.

9.Oil prices in 2012 could lead to a doubling in the Baltic Dry Index as operating expenses fall and thus demand rises.

10.the price of CBOT wheat could double as bad weather and speculative investors help drive the price back towards the record high last seen in 2008.  

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